BARMM Summary Inflation Report for October 2022

November 8, 2022Special Release Ref No.: SR-BARMM-22-070

INFLATION RATES FOR ALL ITEMS

Table 1. Year-on-Year Inflation Rates for All Items, BARMM: October 2022, September 2022, and October 2021 (In percent, 2018=100)
Source: Retail Price Survey of Commodities for the Generation of Consumer Price Index, Philippine Statistics Authority

The headline inflation in BARMM increased further to 6.5 percent in October 2022, from 6.0 percent in September 2022. This is the highest recorded inflation since January 2022. Inflation in October 2021 was lower at 2.3 percent. The average inflation for the first ten months of the year stood at approximately 3.4 percent (see Figure 1). It is shown in Table 1 that in October 2022, Lanao del Sur has the highest inflation rate among BARMM provinces, including HUC with 9.4 percent. Other provinces with an increase inflation rates compared to previous month are the following: Basilan at 7.0 percent, Sulu at 6.4 percent, Cotabato City at 3.6 percent. On the other hand, Inflation rates of Maguindanao and Tawi-Tawi posted a decline at 4.6 and 5.3 percent, respectively.

Figure 1. Headline Inflation Rates for All Items, BARMM: October 2021 to October 2022 (In percent, 2018=100)
Source: Retail Price Survey of Commodities for the Generation of Consumer Price Index, Philippine Statistics Authority

The increase in the region’s inflation was mainly brought about by the higher annual increase in the index for Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 8.4 percent, Restaurant and Accommodation Services at 6.4 percent and Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House at 3.0 percent. Also contributing to the uptrend in the overall inflation during the period were the higher annual increments in the indices of the following commodity groups as compared with their previous month’s inflation rates:

a. Recreation, Sport and Culture, 2.5 percent
b. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 2.3 percent
c. Health, 1.9 percent
d. Information and Communication, 1.3 percent

Meanwhile, annual upticks slowed down in the indices of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco at 6.7 percent, Transport at 5.0 percent and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 3.4 percent.

On the other hand, the commodity groups of Education Services, Clothing and Footwear and Financial Services retained their previous month’s inflation rate at 3.9, 2.3 and 0.0 percent, respectively.

Table 2. Inflation Rates by Commodity Group for All Income Households, BARMM: October 2021, September 2022, and October 2022 (In percent, 2018=100)
Source: Retail Price Survey of Commodities for the Generation of Consumer Price Index, Philippine Statistics Authority

INFLATION RATES FOR FOOD ITEMS

For food index, it increased further by 8.4 percent in October 2022, from 6.7 percent in the previous month. In October 2021, food index was lower by 1.5 percent.

The increase in the region’s food inflation was mainly brought about by the higher annual increase in the index for Sugar, Confectionery and Desserts at 38.5 percent, Vegetables, Tubers, Cooking Bananas and Pulses at 9.6 percent, and Fish and other seafood at 9.1 percent. Also contributing to the uptrend in the overall inflation during the period were the higher annual increments in the indices of the following commodity groups as compared with their previous month’s inflation rates:

a. Meat and Other Parts of Slaughtered Land Animals, 7.6 percent
b. Fruits and Nuts, 7.5 percent
c. Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals, 7.0 percent
d. Ready-made Food and Other Food Products N.E.C., 2.3 percent

Meanwhile, inflation rates in other food commodities had decreased. These are Oils and Fats at 15.4 and Corn at 10.5 percent.

On the other hand, Milk, Other Dairy Products and Eggs and Rice retained their previous month’s inflation rate at 6.1 and 5.1 percent, respectively.

Table 3. Inflation Rate by Commodity Group for Food, BARMM: October 2021, September 2022, and October 2022 (In percent, 2018=100)
Source: Retail Price Survey of Commodities for the Generation of Consumer Price Index, Philippine Statistics Authority

PURCHASING POWER OF PESO

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) is inversely related to inflation rate. Thus, as the inflation rate increases, PPP declines, as shown in Figure 2. In BARMM, PPP is at 0.85 as of October 2022. This is the lowest purchasing power of peso recorded since January 2022.

Figure 2. Purchasing Power of Peso in BARMM, October 2021 to October 2022 (In percent, 2018=100)
Source: Retail Price Survey of Commodities for the Generation of Consumer Price Index, Philippine Statistics Authority

TECHNICAL NOTES

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI is an indicator of the changes in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Uses of CPI

The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of peso. It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as a monitoring indicator of government economic policy.

Computation of CPI

The computation of the CPI involves consideration of the following important points:

a. Base Period

The reference date or base period is the benchmark or reference date or period at which the index is taken as equal to 100.

b. Market Basket

A sample of the thousands of varieties of goods purchased for consumption and services availed by the households in the country selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers.

c. Weighting System

The weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to total expenditure.

d. Formula

The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2006) weights.

e. Geographic Coverage

CPI values are computed at the national, regional, and provincial levels, and for selected cities.

Inflation Rate is the rate of change of the CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of declining purchasing power of peso

Headline Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI, a measure of the average standard “basket” of goods and services consumed by a typical family.

Purchasing Power of Peso shows how much the peso in the base period is worth in the current period. It is computed as the reciprocal of the CPI for the period under review multiplied by 100

Note: The dataset used in the special release is exclusive for ARMM plus Cotabato City.

 

 

(Sgd) ENGR. AKAN G. TULA
OIC-Regional Director
PSA RSSO-BARMM