ARMM Palay and Corn Situation and Outlook in 2017

October 5, 2018Special Release Ref No.: 2018-037

Palay Production in ARMM decreased by 6.2% in 2017.

In 2017, the volume of palay production accounted for about 13.6% of all regions in Mindanao. It was estimated at 577,984 metric tons with an increase of 6.2% from 544,486 metric tons in 2016.

Majority of produced palay in ARMM were grown in rainfed farms with a rate of 79.4% of the total palay productions in the region. Production from this type of ecosystem increased by 11.9%, from 410,083 metric tons in 2016 to 458,740 metric tons in 2017. On the other hand, the volume of production of palay from irrigated farms decreased by 11.3% from 134,403.4 metric tons to 119,244 metric tons in the said years, respectively.

Figure 1. Volume of Palay Production by Ecosystem, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Maguindanao province had the most produced palay in ARMM in 2017 with a rate of 67.1% of total palay produced in the region. The volume of the palay production in this province decreased by 2.6%, from 402,536 metric tons in 2016 to 391,924 metric tons in 2017. Basilan and Tawi-tawi also had a negative outcome in the said periods since there were 21.7% and 9% decrease of palay production in their province, respectively. On the other hand, Lanao del Sur and Sulu had a 32% and 32.8% increase in their palay production in the said periods, respectively.

Figure 2. Volume of Total Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Irrigated Palay Production in ARMM

Majority of the palay produced from irrigated lands in ARMM came from Maguindanao in 2017 with a rate of 57.6% of the total irrigated palay production in the region. The volume of irrigated palay production in this province decreased by 30.5%, from 98,919 metric tons in the 2016 to 68,735 metric tons in 2017.

Figure 3. Volume of Irrigated Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Rainfed Palay Production in ARMM

Similar to irrigated palay production, the province of Maguindanao also had the largest contribution in the rainfed production in ARMM with a rate of 70.5% of the total rainfed palay production in the region. The volume of this production in this province increased by 6.5% from 303,617 metric tons in 2016 to 323,189 metric tons in 2017.

Figure 4. Volume of Rainfed Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

January – June 2018 Standing Crops in Palay

Based on standing crop, probable palay production for January - June 2018 may decrease to 225,383 metric tons, 7.1% below 242,625 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area may be lower by 86,533 hectares (Ha) from 91,932 hectares in 2017. Also, yield may fall from 2.64 metric tons per hectare in 2017 to 2.6 metric tons per hectare in 2018.

Figure 5. Standing Crops of Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Production in irrigated palay may increase to 74,371 metric tons, 23.4% above the 60,286 metric tons output in 2017. There will be an expansion from 19,016 hectares to 22,006 hectares for the harvest area and an increase in the yield from 3.17 metric tons per hectare to 3.38 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 6. Standing Crops of Irrigated Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Rainfed palay production may decrease to 96,120 metric tons, 23.4% below the 125,551 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area is expected to decrease from 42,867 hectares to 36,428 hectares. Also, an expected decrease in the yield from 2.93 metric tons per hectare to 2.64 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 7. Standing Crops of Rainfed Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Upland palay production may decrease to 54,892 metric tons (Mt), 3.3% below 56,788 metric tons (Mt) output in 2017. Also, an expected decrease from 30,049 hectares (Ha) to 28,099 hectares (Ha) for the harvest area. On the other hand, yield is expected to increase from 1.89 metric tons per hectare (Mt/Ha) to 1.95 metric tons per hectare (Mt/Ha).

Figure 8. Standing Crops of Upland Palay, ARMM, First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Corn Production in ARMM increased by 42.5% in 2017.

In 2017, the volume of corn production in ARMM accounted for about 21.1% of all the regions in Mindanao. It was estimated at 841,618 metric tons with a 42.5% increase from 590,579.86 metric tons in 2016. Majority of produced corns in ARMM were yellow corns with a rate of 50.3% of the total corn productions in the region. The volume of production in this type of corn increased by 71.2%, from 247,238 metric tons in 2016 to 423,160 metric tons in 2017. Likewise, the volume of production of white corn also had an increase of 21.9% from 343,341.66 metric tons in 2016 to 418,458 metric tons in 2017.

Figure 9. Volume of Corn Production by Ecosystem, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Maguindanao province had the most produced corn in ARMM in 2017 with a rate of 55.7% of the total corn produced in the region. There was also an increase of about 34% of the volume of corn production in the said province, from 350,133.36 metric tons in 2016 to 469,162 metric tons in 2017. Also, all remaining provinces had a positive outcome in the said periods.

Figure 10. Volume of Total Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

White Corn Production in ARMM

Majority of the produced white corn in ARMM in 2017 came from Lanao del Sur with a rate of 56.3% of the total white corn produced in the region. The volume of white corn production in this province increased by 40%, from 168,276.7 metric tons in 2016 to 235,553 metric tons in 2017.

Figure 11. Volume of White Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Yellow Corn Production in ARMM

The province of Maguindanao had the most contribution in yellow corn production in ARMM in 2017 with a rate of 68.1% of the total yellow corn produced in the region. The volume of yellow corn production of this province increased by 63%, from 176,890.4 metric tons in 2016 to 288,288 metric tons in 2017.

Figure 12. Volume of Yellow Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

January – June 2018 Standing Crops in Corn

Based on standing crop, probable corn production for January - June 2018 may decrease to 407,903 metric tons, 12.6% below 466,657 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area may be lower by 155,575 hectares from 159,730 hectares in 2017. Also, yield may fall from 2.92 metric tons per hectare in 2016 to 2.62 metric tons per hectare in 2018.

Figure 13. Standing Crops of Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Production in white corn may decrease to 174,535 metric tons, 10.3% below the 194,669 metric tons output in 2017. There will be an expansion from 79,537 hectares to 83,825 hectares for the harvest area but a decrease in the yield from 2.45 metric tons per hectare to 2.08 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 14. Standing Crops of White Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Yellow corn production may decrease to 233,368 metric tons, 14.2% below 271,988 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area is expected to decrease from 80,193 hectares to 71,750 hectares. Also, yield may fall from 3.39 metric tons per hectare to 3.25 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 15. Standing Crops of Yellow Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Palay and Corn Production Survey

            Palay Production Survey and Corn Production Survey (PPS and CPS) are some of the major agricultural surveys conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). These generate estimates and forecasts on palay and corn production, area and yield and other production-related data that serve as inputs for policy making and programs on palay/rice.

            The data generated from this survey are disseminated through special releases, bulletin and publications, namely:

Special Release

  • Palay and Corn Situation and Outlook
  • Seasonally Adjusted Rice Production and Prices

Bulletin (quarterly)

  • Rice and Corn Quarterly Bulletin

Publication (annual)

  • Palay Production in the Philippines
  • Corn Production in the Philippines

 The collections of data of these surveys are undertaken by hired Statistical Researchers (SRs). The SRs are trained prior to field operation to ensure that the procedures and concepts are   understood. The training includes mock interviews and dry-run exercises.

 PPS and CPS are quarterly surveys which cover sample farming households in sample barangays in all provinces except Batanes and include Zamboanga and Davao City. These employ   replicated two-stage stratified sampling design with the barangay as the primary sampling unit (psu) and farming household as the secondary sampling unit (ssu). The barangays are stratified   based on their palay and corn area and are selected using probability proportional to size, (pps and cps) scheme. Four replicates, four independent sets of sample barangays per stratum are   drawn. From the selected barangays, households were drawn through systematic sampling.

 The data gathered in this survey are as follows: production, area planted/harvested and yield by ecosystem and seed type; usage of seeds, fertilizer and pesticides; source of irrigation water and   adequacy, monthly distribution of production and area harvested; farm household disposition of production; area with standing crop, farmer’s planting intention for the quarter; and awareness and   availment of palay and corn program interventions. The reference period for each survey round is shown below:

Survey Round Reference Round
April Round January to March
July Round April to June
October Round July to September
January Round October to December

Definition of Terms:

Palay Household – the sample household operates an agricultural land, whole or part of which is palay area within the nine-month period, or the land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to palay production. Specifically, any of the following conditions must be satisfied:

  1. Household harvested palay during the reference quarter;
  2. Household has standing palay crop in the farm;
  3. Household intends to plant within the succeeding quarter; and
  4. The land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to palay production.

Non-Palay Household – household operates an agricultural land which is not intended for/devoted to palay production, i.e., zero palay production, no standing palay crop and planting intention.

Corn Household – the sample household operates an agricultural land, whole or part of which is corn area within the nine-month period, or the land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent          declares that it is devoted to palay production. Specifically, any of the following conditions must be satisfied:

  1. Household harvested corn during the reference quarter;
  2. Household has standing corn crop in the farm;

a.    Household intends to plant within the succeeding quarter; and

b.    The land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to corn production.

Non-Corn Household – household operates an agricultural land which is not intended for/devoted to corn production, i.e., zero corn production, no standing corn crop and planting intention.

Technical Notes:

                        Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter. Estimates and forecasts of production and harvest area of palay and corn are generated from the Quarterly Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) of which there are four survey rounds in a year that is January, April, July and October. The following are the data taken from these surveys:

               a.      Production estimates of the previous quarter for each survey round;

               b.      Forecast one quarter ahead based on the standing crop; and

               c.      Forecast two quarters ahead based on planning intentions.

 

(Sgd) HJI. RAZULDEN A. MANGELEN, MPA, MDM
(Chief Statistical Specialist)
Officer-in-Charge
RSSO-ARMM