Palay And Corn Situation And Outlook In ARMM (January 2018 Round)

January 5, 2018Special Release Ref No.: 2018-003

Palay Production in ARMM decreased by 13.1% in the Second Semester of 2017

In the second semester of 2017, the volume of palay production accounted for about 14.6% of all regions in Mindanao. It was estimated at 335,359 metric tons with decrease of 13.1% from 385,827 metric tons during the second semester of 2016.

Majority of produced palay in ARMM were grown in rainfed farms with a rate of 65% of the total palay productions in the region. Production from this type of ecosystem decreased by 12.9%, from 317,450 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 276,401 metric tons in the same period of 2017. Also, the volume of production of palay from irrigated farms decreased by 13.8% from 68,377 metric tons to 58,958 metric tons in the said semesters, respectively.

Figure 1. Volume of Palay Production by Ecosystem, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source of Basic Data: Philippine Statistics Authority, Survey of Retail Prices of Commodities for the Generation of CPI

Maguindanao province had the most produced palay in ARMM during the second semester of 2017 with a rate of 66.2% of the total palay produced in the region. The volume of the palay production in this province decreased by 22.5%, from 286,572 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 222,122 metric tons in the second semester of 2017. Basilan and Tawi-tawi also had a negative outcome in the said periods since there were 28.3% and 9% decrease of palay production in their province, respectively. On the other hand, Lanao del Sur and Sulu had a 14.4% and 32.8% increase in their palay production in the said periods, respectively.

Figure 2. Volume of Total Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Irrigated Palay Production in ARMM        

Majority of the palay produced from irrigated lands in ARMM came from Maguindanao during the second semester of 2017 with a rate of 63.8% of the total irrigated palay production in the region. The volume of irrigated palay production in this province decreased by 13.8%, from 68,377 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 58,958 metric tons in the second semester of 2017.

Figure 3. Volume of Irrigated Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Rainfed Palay Production in ARMM

Similar to irrigated palay production, the province of Maguindanao also had the largest contribution in the rainfed production in ARMM with a rate of 66.7% of the total rainfed palay production in the region. The volume of this production in this province decreased by 20.9% from 233,326 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 184,490 metric tons in the second semester of 2017. On the other hand, the province of Lanao del Sur and Sulu had a growth rate of 8.9% and 30.7% of said semesters, respectively. Basilan and Tawi-tawi also contributed to the production with 118 metric tons and 253 metric tons, respectively.

Figure 4. Volume of Rainfed Palay Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Quarter, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

January – June 2018 Standing Crops in Palay         

Based on standing crop, probable palay production for January - June 2018 may decrease to 225,383 metric tons, 7.1% below 242,625 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area may be lower by 86,533 hectares (Ha) from 91,932 hectares in 2017. Also, yield may fall from 2.64 metric tons per hectare in 2017 to 2.6 metric tons per hectare in 2018. 

Figure 5. Standing Crops of Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Production in irrigated palay may increase to 74,371 metric tons, 23.4% above the 60,286 metric tons output in 2017. There will be an expansion from 19,016 hectares to 22,006 hectares for the harvest area and an increase in the yield from 3.17 metric tons per hectare to 3.38 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 6. Standing Crops of Irrigated Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Rainfed palay production may decrease to 96,120 metric tons, 23.4% below the 125,551 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area is expected to decrease from 42,867 hectares to 36,428 hectares. Also, an expected decrease in the yield from 2.93 metric tons per hectare to 2.64 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 7. Standing Crops of Rainfed Palay, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Upland palay production may decrease to 54,892 metric tons (Mt), 3.3% below 56,788 metric tons (Mt) output in 2017. Also, an expected decrease from 30,049 hectares (Ha) to 28,099 hectares (Ha) for the harvest area. On the other hand, yield is expected to increase from 1.89 metric tons per hectare (Mt/Ha) to 1.95 metric tons per hectare (Mt/Ha).

Figure 8. Standing Crops of Upland Palay, ARMM, First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Corn Production in ARMM decreased by 25.5% in Second Semester of 2017

In the second semester of 2017, the volume of corn production in ARMM accounted for about 14.6% of all the regions in Mindanao. It was estimated at 374,961 metric tons with a 25.5% decrease from 503,072 metric tons in the second semester of 2016. Majority of produced corns in ARMM were white corns with a rate of 67.6% of the total corn productions in the region. The volume of production in this type of corn decreased by 22.2%, from 287,678 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 223,789 metric tons in the same period of 2017. Likewise, the volume of production of white corn also had a decrease of 29.8% from 215,394 metric tons during the second semester of 2016 to 151,172 metric tons in the same period of 2017.

Figure 9. Volume of Corn Production by Ecosystem, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Lanao del Sur province had the most produced corn in ARMM during the second semester of 2017 with a rate of 53.9% of the total corn produced in the region. There was also an increase of about 1.5% of the volume of corn production in the said province, from 199,169 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 202,057 metric tons in the second semester of 2017. Also, the provinces of Sulu and Tawi-tawi had a positive outcome in the said periods with 18.9% and 20.5% increase of corn production in their provinces, respectively. On the other hand, the volume of corn production in Maguindanao decreased by 43.3% from 302,807 metric tons to 171,618 metric ton in the said periods, respectively. Basilan remained the same with a production of 115 metric tons.

Figure 10. Volume of Total Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

White Corn Production in ARMM

Majority of the produced white corn in ARMM during the second semester of 2017 came from Lanao del Sur with a rate of 62.2% of the total white corn produced in the region. The volume of white corn production in this province increased by 2.4%, from 135,912 metric tons in the second semester of 2016 to 139,157 metric tons in the second semester of 2017. On the other hand, the province of Maguindanao had a negative outcome in the second semester of 2017 with a 44.7 decrease rate from the same semester of 2016. Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi also contributed to the production if the said period with 115 metric tons, 813 metric tons and 358 metric tons, respectively.

Figure 11. Volume of White Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Yellow Corn Production in ARMM

The province of Maguindanao had the most contribution in yellow corn production in ARMM during the first semester of 2017 with a rate of 67% of the total yellow corn produced in the region. The volume of yellow corn production of this province increased by 498%, from 24,038.4 metric tons in the first semester of 2016 to 143,683 metric tons in the first semester of 2017. Also, the volume of yellow corn production in Lanao del Sur massively increased by 891%, from 7,090.8 metric tons in the first semester of 2016 to 70,229 metric tons in the first semester of 2017. There were no data collected from Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi.

Figure 12. Volume of Yellow Corn Production by Provinces, ARMM: Second Semester, 2016 and 2017 (in metric tons)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

January – June 2018 Standing Crops in Corn         

Based on standing crop, probable corn production for January - June 2018 may decrease to 407,903 metric tons, 12.6% below 466,657 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area may be lower by  155,575 hectares from 159,730 hectares in 2017. Also, yield may fall from 2.92 metric tons per hectare in 2016 to 2.62 metric tons per hectare in 2018.

Figure 13. Standing Crops of Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Production in white corn may decrease to 174,535 metric tons, 10.3% below the 194,669 metric tons output in 2017. There will be an expansion from 79,537 hectares to 83,825 hectares for the harvest area but a decrease in the yield from 2.45 metric tons per hectare to 2.08 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 14. Standing Crops of White Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Yellow corn production may decrease to 233,368 metric tons, 14.2% below 271,988 metric tons output in 2017. Harvest area is expected to decrease from 80,193 hectares to 71,750 hectares. Also, yield may fall from 3.39 metric tons per hectare to 3.25 metric tons per hectare.

Figure 15. Standing Crops of Yellow Corn, ARMM: First Semester, 2017 and 2018
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Palay and Corn Production Survey

            Palay Production Survey and Corn Production Survey (PPS and CPS) are some of the major agricultural surveys conducted by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). These generate estimates and forecasts on palay and corn production, area and yield and other production-related data that serve as inputs for policy making and programs on palay/rice.

            The data generated from this survey are disseminated through special releases, bulletin and publications, namely:

Special Release

  • Palay and Corn Situation and Outlook
  • Seasonally Adjusted Rice Production and Prices

Bulletin (quarterly)

  • Rice and Corn Quarterly Bulletin

Publication (annual)

  • Palay Production in the Philippines
  • Corn Production in the Philippines

 The collections of data of these surveys are undertaken by hired Statistical Researchers (SRs). The SRs are trained prior to field operation to ensure that the procedures and concepts are   understood. The training includes mock interviews and dry-run exercises.

 PPS and CPS are quarterly surveys which cover sample farming households in sample barangays in all provinces except Batanes and include Zamboanga and Davao City. These employ   replicated two-stage stratified sampling design with the barangay as the primary sampling unit (psu) and farming household as the secondary sampling unit (ssu). The barangays are stratified   based on their palay and corn area and are selected using probability proportional to size, (pps and cps) scheme. Four replicates, four independent sets of sample barangays per stratum are   drawn. From the selected barangays, households were drawn through systematic sampling.

 The data gathered in this survey are as follows: production, area planted/harvested and yield by ecosystem and seed type; usage of seeds, fertilizer and pesticides; source of irrigation water and   adequacy, monthly distribution of production and area harvested; farm household disposition of production; area with standing crop, farmer’s planting intention for the quarter; and awareness and   availment of palay and corn program interventions. The reference period for each survey round is shown below:

Survey Round Reference Round
April Round January to March
July Round April to June
October Round July to September
January Round October to December

Definition of Terms:

Palay Household – the sample household operates an agricultural land, whole or part of which is palay area within the nine-month period, or the land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to palay production. Specifically, any of the following conditions must be satisfied:

  1. Household harvested palay during the reference quarter;
  2. Household has standing palay crop in the farm;
  3. Household intends to plant within the succeeding quarter; and
  4. The land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to palay production.

Non-Palay Household – household operates an agricultural land which is not intended for/devoted to palay production, i.e., zero palay production, no standing palay crop and planting intention.

Corn Household – the sample household operates an agricultural land, whole or part of which is corn area within the nine-month period, or the land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent          declares that it is devoted to palay production. Specifically, any of the following conditions must be satisfied:

  1. Household harvested corn during the reference quarter;
  2. Household has standing corn crop in the farm;

a.    Household intends to plant within the succeeding quarter; and

b.    The land is temporarily in-fallow but the respondent declares that it is devoted to corn production.

Non-Corn Household – household operates an agricultural land which is not intended for/devoted to corn production, i.e., zero corn production, no standing corn crop and planting intention.

Technical Notes:

                        Production refers to the quantity produced and actually harvested for a particular crop during the reference period. For palay and corn, harvest area refers to the actual area harvested/to be harvested during the reference quarter. Estimates and forecasts of production and harvest area of palay and corn are generated from the Quarterly Palay and Corn Production Survey (PCPS) of which there are four survey rounds in a year that is January, April, July and October. The following are the data taken from these surveys:

               a.      Production estimates of the previous quarter for each survey round;

               b.      Forecast one quarter ahead based on the standing crop; and

               c.      Forecast two quarters ahead based on planning intentions.

 

(Sgd) ABUBAKAR S. ASAAD, Ph.D. (Statistics)
Regional Director, PSA-ARMM