PSA-BARMM employee attends Training on Advanced Forecasting Methods

June 18, 2019News Article Ref No.: NL-ARMM-19-019
Participants and resource persons for the Training on Advanced Forecasting Methods in PSRTI.

Mr. Nurosalam C. Caludtiag, Assistant Statistician of PSA-BARMM, attended the five-day Training on Advanced Forecasting Methods on 22 to 26 April 2019 at Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute (PSRTI), Quezon City. This training was designed for PSA Central and Field Offices and was facilitated by PSRTI, headed by Mr. Ken Christopher E. Mojica, Statistical Specialist of PSRTI Training Division. 

The training aims to provide the participants with an understanding of the principles and steps in the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach in modeling and forecasting. The Human Resources Division (HRD) of PSA provided the list of participants that are selected based on their training profile and qualifications set by PSRTI.  

Mr. Manuel Leonard F. Albis, Assistant Professor of the School of Statistics in the University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman, introduced the basic concepts of time series and advanced forecasting to the participants in the first day of the training. This chapter includes Growth and Trend Models, Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting Accuracy Measures and Box-Jenkins Modeling Approach.

On the second day, Mr. Michael Dominic C. Del Mundo, Assistant Professor of UP Diliman Population Institute, discussed EViews®, a statistical software for time series data. He demonstrated the process on how to esimmate an ARIMA model in the said software. The lecture was followed by a series of hands-on exercises facilitated by Mr. Leonard Allan F. Almero, Assistant Professor of UP Diliman School of Statistics. 

Mr. Albis continued the lecture on the third day with a thorough discussion on ARIMA. Mr. Almero also headed the workshop sessions for this chapter.

The participants were divided into six groups for the final workshop which started on the third day. Concepts and principles of the whole training were applied into this activity. The groups presented their outputs on the last day. Each was critiqued by the resource persons and their co-participants. 

Selected participants delivered their impressions for the training during the closing program. Ms. Jessa S. Lopez, Chief Statistical Specialist of PSRTI ended the program with her closing remarks.